Is the Ten Year Going to 3%?
These two articles point in a bad direction: China’s 2011 total trade surplus was $183B. The surplus with the USA was $270B; the US was 150% of China’s total surplus. China imports lots of “stuff.” Crude oil is high on that list. Increased domestic consumption, plus additional imports for strategic storage, have pushed up More...
On Politics, Social Security and Spine
Assuming that no white knight (aka NJ Gov. Christie) enters the scene for the Republicans, this fall will be a race between Mitt & “O”. I’ve listened to them discuss their views on a hot button of mine, More...
Sins Of The Past
Ben Bernanke has said many times that Marriner Eccles, the head of the Federal Reserve in 1936/37 made a mistake by tightening credit (raising reserve requirements). Bernanke blames Eccles’s actions for the 50% More...
Bernanke Talks his Book
Bernanke’s testimony to the House last week and to the Senate yesterday held no surprises. Ben has promised to maintain monetary policy at DEFCON 4 levels for as far into the future as we can see. The prepared More...
Entering the Intervention Zone
One Around Two We are near the edge on a few situations in the FX markets. I’m watching the EURCHF and the USDYEN. The market traded EURCHF to a low of 1.2032 Wednesday. It closed at a (slightly) safer 1.2044. More...
Obama Bluffs on Refi?
In his State of the Union speech, the President said: Millions of innocent Americans have seen their home values decline. And while government can’t fix the problem on its own, responsible homeowners shouldn’t More...
Bernanke Goes All In
Well, we got an inflation target from the Fed. Basically, thinking at the Fed has been eliminated. The process has been automated. Bernanke has convinced the Fed board to adopt Core PCE as a determinate of monetary More...
Will the Fed Bring Clarity or Confusion?
Next Wednesday, between 12:30 and 2PM, we will get a ton of new information to digest and analyze. The Federal Reserve will make a series of statements while unveiling its new communication effort. A portion of More...
Tyler Durden and Paul Krugman Agree! – The EU is Toast!
A rare occurrence in journalism happened today. Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge is in agreement with – hold on – Paul Krugman of the NY Times. Both writers point readers to the FAQs from S&P on the downgrades More...
Social Security – January 2012 and Beyond
The January 2012 numbers for Social Security (SS) show a mixed picture. The results mirror what is going on in the economy. There is clear evidence that revenues at SS are recovering; there is equally clear evidence More...
